Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.117209 3.355473 3.623730 3.953102 4.354126 4.837560 5.483676
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.803616 3.106349 3.470986 3.957913 4.619373 5.540276 7.052813
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.604980 2.936775 3.353495 3.941899 4.807450 6.164210 8.903507
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.432166 2.771138 3.208113 3.847950 4.842621 6.549814 10.718067
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.360244 2.723123 3.205836 3.945574 5.183236 7.611454 16.121231
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.232329 2.588782 3.069158 3.819792 5.117839 7.837947 19.921620
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.119544 2.466553 2.938375 3.685670 5.008683 7.921661 24.086005
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.041093 2.385761 2.859748 3.623724 5.019169 8.312331 36.365809
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.015343 2.374940 2.880037 3.721848 5.358302 9.859723 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.007953 2.388406 2.936094 3.886338 5.887279 12.850479 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.967251 2.351675 2.912476 3.907488 6.103849 15.144366 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.933260 2.322529 2.898019 3.942794 6.368637 18.765641 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.855161 2.228100 2.779045 3.777989 6.090776 17.750872 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.817016 2.190880 2.749103 3.780305 6.272218 21.990681 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.778584 2.151330 2.712697 3.765739 6.405051 27.583966 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.729260 2.093617 2.643749 3.680451 6.307905 29.303915 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.716401 2.089478 2.661338 3.769069 6.778629 68.762031 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.667449 2.029240 2.583313 3.654845 6.553772 61.608090 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.619319 1.969050 2.503442 3.532609 6.287051 49.994753 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.585467 1.929551 2.456569 3.475999 6.235518 59.188067 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.579550 1.931960 2.479250 3.565625 6.717622 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.583151 1.948844 2.527084 3.715325 7.527405 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.565446 1.932145 2.516322 3.734524 7.825359 NaN NaN